Today's topic: Global Warming
Bah, fine, another political rant. After reading the latest installment of the Washington Post’s expose on Dick Cheney I stumbled across an op-ed piece by Emily Yoffe where she was busy slamming Al Gore for his movie “An Inconvenient Truth” and the idea of global warming as a whole.
Now I make no bones about the fact that if Gore decides to run for President again, he’ll have my vote. So it’s no surprise that I’m going to take a few moments to pick apart this article in which scientific information and evidence are unapologetically twisted to make a point.
The point Yoffe was trying to make is that we shouldn't be terrified all the time about global warming, and those people trying to push it into the headlines are not only wasting their time, but also doing themselves and us a disservice. Basically, she's trying to say the same thing as the Democrats do about the Republican policy of fear about terrorism.
On one hand, she's right. The best way to deal with the problem isn't to fear monger us. (war on terror, 9/11, colored alert charts, etc). But at the same time, she's so far off base on the science that's she doing far more damage than good. She can't even make the basic distinction between climate and weather. >
“Since I hate the heat, even I was alarmed by the recent headline: "NASA Warns of 110-Degrees for Atlanta, Chicago, DC in Summer." But I regained my cool when I realized the forecast was for close to the end of the century. Thanks to all the heat-mongering, it's supposed to be a sign I'm in denial because I refuse to trust a weather prediction for August 2080, when no one can offer me one for August 2008 (or 2007 for that matter).
There is so much hubris in the certainty about the models of the future that I'm oddly reassured. We've seen how hubristic predictions about complicated, unpredictable events have a way of bringing the predictors low.”
That argument is just absurd, and either she knows this or she’s delving into a topic she has no right to be taking up valuable space in the Post with. Everyone knows that the precise weather in any given place and time is not predictable more than a week or so ahead of time. (Butterflies, Chaos theory, whatever...)
However, the climate is the sum total of all weather, and is very much predictable. Yoffe's example actually shows this: We can in fact say a great deal about this August. Granted, we can't predict precise local temperatures, but we know August on average is going to be hotter than December (in the Northern hemisphere, anyway). Our seasons are predictable, as are many other things about the climate, including the influence of the greenhouse effect upon it. Because of our contribution to greenhouse gasses, we know that the global average temperature is going to be hotter in the future.
But Yoffe isn't finished -- she also rambled on about global warming and hurricanes:
“Now, Gore and others say that Katrina was a product of global warming and that we can expect more and bigger storms. But there is actually brisk scientific debate over the role global warming plays -- if any -- in the creation of hurricanes.”
First of all, Gore never said that Katrina was a "product of global warming." In fact in congressional testimony he clearly put to bed the notion that any single storm can be causally attributed in this way.
Yoffe, meanwhile, doesn't even seem to grasp what this whole debate is about.
It's not whether there will be more storms, or whether they will be bigger. And it is definitely not about the creation of hurricanes. Hurricanes will always exist; the question is what they'll be like once they occur. Science suggests they will probably be more intense on average, wetter, and occur over seas that are higher as more of our polar ice melts. It's not wrong or alarmist to point that out.
The point I’m trying to make is this. Yoffe's article is just another sad example of how right wing Washington journalism treats scientific information. Whether it be global warming, or stem cell research, it’s more important to make a clever argument than to be right.